UN Warns an Unprecedented El Niño Could Be Off the Charts 

The UN has warned countries to prepare for what could be an unprecedented El Niño. At a Geneva press conference on Wednesday, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event may exceed the monitoring charts used over the past four decades. She expects it to peak toward the end of 2026, with effects lasting well beyond that. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher joined her. 

• Forecast: The WMO’s latest seasonal update says sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, the heart of El Niño, could reach 3.8C above average between November and January. That is far outside typical El Niño levels. 

• Joint appeal: The two UN bodies called for urgent, coordinated anticipatory action. 

• Fletcher’s warning: He called El Niño a “wrecking ball” of extreme heat, droughts and floods. He said the damage would spread beyond the countries directly affected through economic shocks, conflict, displacement and migration. 

• Funding: Fletcher has released $50 million to help 11 frontline countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia and South Sudan. 

El Niño is a natural cycle. It warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and shifts winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns worldwide. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months. 

What sets this one apart, according to the World Meteorological Organization, is its possible strength. Its heat would add to the effects of man-made climate change. If the forecast holds, an unprecedented El Niño would have far-reaching consequences for weather patterns across the world, Saulo said. 

Fletcher said El Niño itself cannot be stopped, but many of its worst human consequences can be prevented. He added that the humanitarian system cannot cope alone with a threat of this scale. 

The event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026. Fletcher urged countries, development banks and international financial institutions to get money moving before the damage is done, not afterwards. He framed the choice as waiting for disaster or investing in resilience. The WMO and UN want anticipatory action to start now, so preparations for an unprecedented El Niño are in place before the peak arrives.