The Value of Rarity 

-By Bhawna Goenka, Co-Founder of Ceres  

I have always found it strange how easily we attach a number to something and then start believing that the number tells us what it is worth. Perhaps that is because we have become so accustomed to measuring everything. How much does it cost? How much is it worth? How much can it appreciate? 

But when I think about diamonds, I keep getting stuck somewhere between those questions. Because what happens when two stones can look almost identical to us, yet one of them has existed for billions of years and the other was created in a laboratory in a matter of weeks? Does the price tell us which one matters more? Or are we asking the wrong question entirely? 

I think that is what has made the recent correction in the diamond market so interesting to me. Natural diamond prices have fallen considerably, while laboratory-grown diamonds have fallen even more dramatically. On the surface, it looks like a story about prices. The more I look at it, though, the more I feel like it is actually a story about value, and how easily we confuse the two. 

Why Have Natural Diamond Prices Fallen? 

There are several reasons behind the correction, and I think it would be too easy to place all of the responsibility on laboratory-grown diamonds.  

Demand has weakened in important markets, particularly China, while consumers have become more conscious of what they are spending. At the same time, laboratory-grown diamonds have created another option for people who want a larger stone at a lower price and place greater importance on appearance and affordability. 

There is pressure further up the supply chain as well. Botswana, one of the world’s largest natural diamond producers, has been particularly affected by weaker demand and competition from laboratory-grown stones. Reuters reported that the country was holding around 12 million carats in diamond stockpiles at the end of 2026, almost twice the maximum amount permitted. 

When I look at these numbers, I don’t think the conclusion should simply be that natural diamonds have lost their value. If anything, I think a price correction forces us to ask a more important question.  

Does a lower price mean that every diamond is suddenly worth less? 

I don’t think so. 

A diamond’s value can still depend on its quality, rarity, certification, provenance and craftsmanship. Exceptional natural diamonds have characteristics that cannot simply be reproduced because the market price has changed. 

A correction changes the price. It doesn’t necessarily change the thing itself. 

What is Happening to Lab-Grown Diamond Prices? 

Laboratory-grown diamonds are diamonds. They are not imitation stones. Chemically, physically and optically, they share essentially the same properties as natural diamonds. 

The difference is where they come from. 

A natural diamond is created through geological processes deep within the Earth. A laboratory-grown diamond is produced using technology, primarily through HPHT or CVD methods. 

And I think that difference is significant because the economics are completely different. 

A natural diamond exists because nature spent an extraordinary amount of time creating the conditions for it. 

A laboratory-grown diamond exists because we have learned how to recreate those conditions through technology. 

As production becomes more efficient, more laboratory-grown diamonds can be made. And when supply can scale much faster than demand, prices inevitably come under pressure. 

Reuters reported in 2025 that average wholesale prices for one- and two-carat laboratory-grown diamonds had fallen by as much as 96% from 2018 levels. Increased production in China and India and the resulting oversupply were among the major reasons for the decline. 

I don’t think there is anything wrong with someone choosing a laboratory-grown diamond. 

If someone wants a larger stone at a lower price, and appearance and affordability are their priorities, it can make perfect sense. But it does make me wonder whether we are sometimes using the word value to describe two completely different things. 

One person might define value as getting more for less. Another might define it as owning something that is difficult, perhaps impossible, to reproduce. 

Both are valid. They simply aren’t the same. 

What is the Real Difference Between Natural and Lab-Grown Diamonds? 

For me, the most meaningful difference is not whether one is a “real” diamond and the other isn’t. Both are diamonds. 

The difference is rarity, origin and history. 

A natural diamond is a geological object. It formed under extraordinary pressure and heat deep within the Earth, and some natural diamonds are billions of years old. 

GIA notes that the oldest dated natural diamonds are approximately 3.5–3.3 billion years old. 

I find that difficult to comprehend sometimes. 

A diamond can be older than almost every human civilisation we know. It existed before our languages, our countries, our borders, our families and our stories. And somehow, eventually, it finds its way into someone’s hands. 

A laboratory-grown diamond can be created in weeks. There is something extraordinary about technology being able to reproduce the physical characteristics of something that nature took billions of years to create. 

But there is one thing technology cannot reproduce. And that is time. It can reproduce the material. But it cannot simply reproduce the geological history. 

Why Does Rarity Matter in Luxury? 

I think luxury has always been about more than usefulness. 

We don’t value something simply because it works. We value certain objects because they are difficult to reproduce. Because someone spent years learning the craft behind them. Because they carry history. Because there aren’t millions of identical versions sitting somewhere waiting to be made. 

Rarity becomes meaningful when it is attached to a story. And this is where I think natural diamonds have something particularly interesting to offer. 

Not every natural diamond is extraordinarily rare. But a particular combination of colour, clarity, size, cut, geological characteristics and origin can make an individual stone incredibly scarce. 

The supply story is important too. The Financial Times reported that global rough diamond production fell from 176.7 million carats in 2005 to 98.8 million carats in 2025. Major mines are also facing depletion, closures and production reductions. 

But I want to be careful here. I don’t think rarity should automatically be translated into investment opportunity. 

Diamond prices can rise. They can fall. No natural diamond should be presented as a guaranteed financial investment. 

To me, the more meaningful idea is much simpler. Rarity creates the possibility of enduring desirability. And those are not necessarily the same thing. 

Why is Provenance Becoming More Important? 

I think we are becoming increasingly interested in where things come from. We want to know the story behind what we buy. That is particularly true in luxury. 

A diamond’s story can include where it was recovered, how it was cut, who certified it and eventually who owned it. 

Certification becomes important because it provides a layer of trust. Organisations such as GIA use scientific methods to determine whether a diamond is natural or laboratory-grown and to identify its characteristics and origin. 

Transparency is important because the consumer deserves to know what they are actually buying. 

India is also moving toward clearer differentiation between natural and laboratory-grown diamonds, with standards requiring laboratory-grown stones to be identified differently rather than simply being presented as diamonds without further distinction. 

And I think that is important. Because once you know where something came from, it stops being just another object. It starts becoming a story. 

When Does a Diamond Become a Legacy? 

Perhaps this is the part of the diamond conversation that fascinates me most. A diamond can begin as something you purchase. But it doesn’t necessarily end there. 

• It can become an engagement ring. 

• A wedding anniversary gift. 

• Something a mother gives her daughter. 

• Something a family keeps for generations. 

And somewhere along the way, its value changes. It is not only about the stone anymore. It becomes about the person who wore it. The occasion it was bought for. The hands it passed through. The memories attached to it. 

That is when I think the idea of legacy becomes important. Because we don’t usually inherit things simply because they were expensive. We inherit things because they meant something. 

This is also why I don’t think the future of natural diamonds needs to be about competing directly with laboratory-grown diamonds. 

They can serve different needs. 

Laboratory-grown diamonds can offer accessibility, larger sizes and greater flexibility for consumers who prioritise those things. 

Natural diamonds can offer something different: rarity, geological history, provenance and the possibility of becoming part of a family’s story. 

For luxury brands, perhaps the question shouldn’t always be: How big is the diamond? 

Maybe it should be: What makes this diamond worth remembering? 

What Does the Future of the Diamond Market Look Like? 

I don’t think the diamond market is going back to what it was before. Consumers have more choices now. They have access to more information. They can compare prices more easily, understand different production methods and question the assumptions that previous generations may have simply accepted. 

Laboratory-grown diamonds are going to remain an important part of the jewellery industry. 

Natural diamonds, meanwhile, will have to become much clearer about what makes them different. 

The early signs of stabilisation in 2026 are interesting, but I don’t think anyone can know exactly where prices will go from here. And perhaps we don’t need to pretend that we do. 

What interests me more is what a changing market reveals. 

When prices are high, it can be easy to assume that price and value are the same thing. 

When prices fall, we are forced to separate the two. 

And maybe that is not necessarily a bad thing. Because if a natural diamond is valuable only because someone once told us that it was expensive, then the moment the price changes, we have a problem. 

But if its value also comes from its rarity, its geological history, its provenance, its craftsmanship and the possibility that it will be carried forward through generations, then perhaps there is something deeper there. 

For me, that is what the idea of rarity comes down to. A natural diamond is finite. It can be billions of years old. It has a history that began long before any of us existed, and it can potentially remain in someone’s family long after we are gone. 

I think there is something incredibly humbling about that. We spend so much of our lives trying to create things that last. And yet some of the most meaningful objects we pass forward are things that were already here long before us. 

So perhaps the value of a natural diamond isn’t simply that it is beautiful, or even that it is rare. Perhaps it is that its rarity cannot be recreated. 

Technology can create a diamond. But it cannot create billions of years of geological history. It cannot manufacture provenance. It cannot reproduce the exact journey that brought one particular stone from deep within the Earth into the hands of one particular person. 

And perhaps that is why, when I think about the future of diamonds, I don’t think the question should always be which one is cheaper? 

I think the better question is: Which kind of value are we actually looking for?